Scientists told how they will predict new coronavirus outbreaks

Today, scientists try to find reliable markers which can be a sign of new outbreak. Some success in this matter has been made by an independent panel of experts from Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut.

A report says that there exists a strait connection between the concentration of the virus in the wastewater and the COVID-19 epidemiological curve (R2 = 0.99), and the number of infected people.  In case of mass infection, the virus falls into wastewater where a certain concentration of it indicates another outbreak.  So, regular tests of wastewaters can be a reliable indicator which can predict another outbreak.

Sewerage analysis is more effective than testing the patients, as the test is carried out only if there are symptoms. In the sewer installation various data processing methods were applied. It is important to say that waste from 4 municipalities, where about 200 thousand people live, enter sewers. In the case of an increase in the number of infected sewer channels immediately “report” about it.

Stephanie Loeb, a researcher at Stanford University, jokingly noted that earlier people immediately stopped talking as soon as they learned about research in sewers. Now they realize that analyzing it will save thousands of lives.

Scientists have actually found a way to predict the epidemic. It be probably used in fall, when the second coronavirus outbreak is expected.